MAIN SEQUENCE SET TO DE-RAIL HOT-FAVOURITE CAMELOT IN INVESTEC DERBY
Epsom 2011 – Mickael Barzalona riding the French-trained Pour Moi to Derby success at just nineteen-years of age in last years Investec Derby (www.telegraph.co.uk)
Good morning punters…!
yesterdays action reviewed
It was an eventful Ladies Day for GYTO yesterday, in a day full of mixed emotions. It all kicked off at twenty to two with the Princess Elizabeth Stakes. Thankfully, ten minutes before this race Newcastle held their opener – the Deloitte Median Auction Maiden Stakes. Where 7/1 shot Chelwood Gate for Roger Varian was driven out to score under Andrea Atzeni, tipped up early on Friday morning. It was a cracking way to start the day and it’s always a good sign for any tipster or punter for that matter, to get off to a winning start! That 7/1 winner eased the pressure as attention turned back to Epsom where we had put our faith in the well-supported Lay Time, a beautifully bred filly out of Galileo for Andrew Balding. The opener didn’t go to plan as Baldings 4-yo failed to capitalise on what seemed a solid early position and quickly looked somewhat outpaced. He was soon unable to quicken, driven along and eased by Jimmy Fortune. It was a seasonal re-appearance for the filly and excuses may be made that she might of needed the run but it was hard to not feel disappointed with her clear cut win at Sandown a solid marker towards the end of last season. Last years third, Clinical went on to win the race despite disappointing at Kempton last season. With Luke Morris duelling for the All-weather crown with Joe Fanning just a couple of months ago it was probably common sense that he would be riding Listed winners sooner rather than later and with Sir Mark Prescotts 4-yo he did have every chance and it was probably the value of the race at 7/1.
With the disappointment of the opener behind us it was onto the Investec Wealth and Investment Handicap where we had opted for the Gosden-trained GATEWOOD under Buick. Highlighted at 3/1 early on Friday morning, we were happy to give it NAP credentials and a four point win stake. With the confidence of a seasonal winning re-appearance run behind him at York, he looked to have further scope for progress and he didn’t fail to impress. From last to first, despite meeting trouble in running Buick landed the 2.15 to get GYTO off the mark at Epsom.
Epsom 2012 – Gatewood landing the Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap under a last to first winning ride from William Buick (Photo – http://www.sportinglife.co.uk)
It was the Investec Diomed Stakes up next and a race we had debated about at GYTO for some time. Not on which horse we were going to choose but how much we were going to stake. SIDE GLANCE had always been a horse we have followed and he had been somewhat disappointing towards the end of last season and didn’t impress too much when appearing at Doncaster in the Mile Stakes. But his run at Kempton was slightly re-assuring and he shaped like a horse that had a win in him sooner rather than later. When we saw he had this opportunity in a small field at Epsom we were always going to tip him up and at 5/1 looked the clear value of the race. Worthadd the odds-on favourite had impressed over in Germany but hadn’t been seen here since last season and the idea, or to some extent ‘hope’ was always that he might need a run. To our delight the race panned out just as we had hoped with Jimmy Fortune giving a determined ride to get him home just in front.
Epsom 2012 – A delighted Jimmy Fortune after his winning ride on Side Glance in the Investec Diomed Stakes (photo – http://www.pictures/metro.co.uk
With two winners out of three, confidence was high heading into the Investec Mile Handicap – the most open race of the day and our money was on Moone’s My Name. It was a tough decision with so many hitting the shortlist, like Boogie Shoes and Unex El Greco. But the 4-yo had won well at Windsor on her seasonal re-apearance and was a creditable fourth at Ascot on testing ground. She did have a wide draw to contend with but if coping looked a value bet in an open punting race. Unfortunately, she was slowly into stride and was somewhat swamped by the seventeen-runner field in the early stages and the poor draw dictated the rest of the race. She did make some headway but was again hampered around the bend 4f out blowing any chance she may of had. With a better draw and a quicker start out of the stalls she may still have some winning left in her yet and so we wouldn’t recommend totally writing her off. Highland Knight was the winner for Andrew Balding and David Probert, making all repelling all challengers to land the Investec Mile Handicap at 13/2. At least one of the shortlist made the frame in Gosdens Unex El Greco who made eye-catching progress late on to finish third, and is one we advise sticking in the tracker/notebook for future races.
The featured race of the day and a race we had been eagerly anticipating for a couple of months was next – the Investec Oak Stakes. We had made our selection for this race a couple of weeks ago assuring our punters to snap up the 6/1 available. We had a small chunk on Vow at 20/1 before her impressive Lingfield trial and were jubilent when she went off 9/2 third favourite. The fairytale, however was not to be as the Aidan O’Brien trained 20/1 shot Was took the Oaks. There were some warning signs with the 3-yo opening as big as 50/1 before returning a 20/1 winner. John Parrotts BBC2 actually mentioned minutes before the off that a punter had stuck £10,000 EW on the eventual Lodge Park Stud bred winner. It was a really frustrating renewal for us with the race not being run at any sort of early gallop with a lot of muddling through the early stages where the fast finishing third and favourite The Fugue was hampered. Vow had every chance settling down in a handy position early on the rail under last years winner Johnny Murtagh and made smooth headway to challenge 2f out but couldn’t get her head out in front and was soon driven along showing similar signs of greenness like we saw in her Lingfield trial run. It was disappointing given that she had every chance but again, its not one i’d be too keen in writing off just yet. Unraced as a 2-yo and having run just twice this season she still gave a creditable effort for the Haggas-yard and she will be winning races in the future, I’m sure of it.
After the over-hyped Oaks renewal it was important that we bounced back and thats exactly what we did in the Richard Hannon-trained Producer. A three-time course and distance winner – it really was horses for courses as the Hughes ridden 3-yo took it in his stride once more to land the Investec Surrey Stakes. At an early price of 3/1 it meant we hit substantial profit on Ladies Day at Epsom and it was good to see so many happy followers despite Vows disappointment. Producer looks like another smart 3-yo for Richard Hannon and he has potential to go onto bigger and better things, although there is some question over what he beat yesterday.
Epsom 2012 – Producer turning out an easy winner of the Investec Surrey Stakes for Richard Hannon, another smart 3-yo (photo – http://www.skysports.com)
The market got the last all wrong as Laffan ran out a 7/1 winner in the Investec Asset Management Handicap under a confident, determined ride by Amy Ryan. The Kevin Ryan-trained 3-yo was given a 10lb penalty for his impressive win at Doncaster beating our selections Famous Poet. But it wasn’t enough to stop him today as he was driven out to score from Mark Johnstons Van Ellis. Despite Famous Poet travelling well, held up in midfield by Dettori when angled for a run he couldn’t find a gap and was soon under pressure keeping on well but losing out in a bunched finish.
Derby day is finally among us and will it be a trainer-son winning combination in Camelot or will one of eight contenders be able to stop him. Its set to be a fascinating renewal despite the Joseph O’Brien ridden 3-yo dominating the market. It does offer punters value if you are able to look elsewhere and thats exactly what we have done. We were lucky enough to have seen Camelot win the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket in fine style and we couldn’t see ourselves tipping anything else after his performance that day but with the colt out of Montjeu, shortening all the time it has become simply un-backable in our eyes. A couple made the shortlist at a fair price in Astrology and Main Sequence and it was as simple as whittling it down. With MAIN SEQUENCE yet to taste defeat, impressing at Lingfield we decided to give the David Lanigan-trained 3-yo a chance. Having proved himself over the Derby trip beating a fair prospect in the Gosden-trained Shantaram we’d much rather take the 10/1 for EW value than the 4/6 on a horse unproven at the distance. Obviously, Camelot is bred to stay 1m4f and more and shaped like it would suit when getting his head in front at Newmarket so remains the obvious danger to all.
The first race of the day sees twelve runners go to post with two non-runners. We have decided to give Hayley Turner a chance on board Open Water. A Horse that has placed in both handicaps including 1m2f latest and looks like he has a lot more to offer for Andrew Balding – who of course has already landed a double at Epsom yesterday in Side Glance in the Diomed Stakes and Highland Knight in the Investec Mile. Open Water was successful on his debut at Sandown over a mile and finished a creditable second upped in trip at Newmarket a month later to the progressive Main Sequence – our derby pick today. He finished third in a Handicap at Newmarket on his seasonal re-appearance on soft/ testing ground over a mile and will have come on for that run. Upped in trip today again to 1m2f is likely to bring about further improvement based on how he shaped on his re-appearance. Andrew Balding has opted to give Hayley Turner a chance today and she has been riding out of her skin of late, recently being named the UK’s number one female jockey. She has a ride in this years derby and will surely be on a high. At 7/2 it is definitely a worthy three point win holding ‘next best’ credentials. The obvious danger is Grandeur for Jeremy Noseda, saddled by William Buick who was in the winners enclosure yesterday on board Gatewood. But the 3-yo is up 8lb for his Goodwood win last week and might just find things getting away from him in the final stages.
The next race, the Investec Woodcote Stakes sees our best bet of the meeting go in the Fahey-trained Euxton Hall. We have also decided to include him in our lucky 15 today which you can see below. We backed him on his debut at Haydock early on last month where he saw off short favourite Barracuda for Tom Dascombe and another potentially smart sort in Annunciation for Richard Hannon. He handled the ground with ease that day travelling prominently throughout to win impressively. Annunciation, who finished second has won since at Windsor to frank the form. There are questions that he prefers a bit of cut in the ground like he had at Haydock and Epsom might ride a bit on the quick side for him but even so he has solid claims. The market has decided the imminent threat is the Mark Johnston-trained Heavy Metal who was a progressive dual winner and with the yard fairing so well in this race winning it three times since 2002 he has to have solid claims. But we don’t rate him as the main danger, instead we would be concerned about Surely Speightful is acting up in class. Saddled by Jamie Spencer today he also has solid claims winning well at Musselburgh after a pleasing third in his maiden to Graphic Guest and so cannot be ruled out totally, despite drifting in the market.
The third race, the Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup sees St Nicholas Abbey re-appear as a short priced favourite despite getting beat by the O’Brien pace-maker Windsor Palace a 66/1 shot at Newmarket. Although, conditions do look ideal today and he is likely to have come on for his re-appearance in Ireland. Despite all this, we are happy to give Masked Marvel another chance based on his St Leger win and the ground proving so testing at Newmarket. He’ll have his optimum trip today and perfect ground and so there can be no excuses. At 10/1 he looks the clear value of the race and will need things to drop right to get the better of O’Briens 5-yo.
Good luck if your following us today, whether its to be a Classic clean sweep for the O’Briens with Camelot, a fairytale success with the syndicate and Andrew Baldings Bonfire or a valued GYTO success in the unbeaten Main Sequence its sure to be another classic derby day. Enjoy it if your at Epsom today!
GYTO Lucky 15
Epsom 2:05 Euxton Hall 6/4
Haydock 2:35 Red Jazz 6/5
Tramore 4:15 Benefit Of Porter 11/10
7:30 Kings Legacy 2/1
Todays Lucky 15 was placed with @Ladbrokes and returns £137.88 (inc. £15 stake) for a £1 WIN stake. The prices on the selections below may differentiate from the prices on the selections below as they were put up early on Saturday morning via @Oddschecker.
Special GYTO EW Derby Double
Epsom 2.40 Masked Marvel 8/1
Epsom 4.00 Main Sequence 9/1
We have gone in search for value today at Epsom on Derby day and conjured up this valued double. We recommend £10 EW which if both selections win will pay up to £1,000. It looks a fairly tough day today at Epsom and so keep stakes small.
1:35 Open Water 4/1 NB 3 point win
2:05 Euxton Hall 9/4 NAP 5 point win
2:40 Masked Marvel 10/1 1 point EW
3:15 Judge N Jury 10/1 1 point EW
4:00 Main Sequence 10/1 2 point EW
4:50 Layline 20/1 1 point EW
5:25 Piscean 10/1 1 point EW
1:40 Pistol 4/1 2 point win
2:10 Shubaat 5/1 2 point win
2:35 Red Jazz 6/4 NAP 5 point win
3:10 Primevere 7/1 1 point EW
3:40 Bogart 13/8 NB 4 point win
4:40 Ladies Are Forever 10/3 3 point win
5:15 Sans Loi 10/1 1 point EW
1.45 Eijaaz 5/2 NAP 3 point win
2.15 New Lease Of Life 15/2 1 point win
2.45 Chosen Character 8/1 1 point EW
3.20 Kingscroft 11/1 1 point EW
4.20 Strikemaster 11/1 1 point EW
4.55 Another Wise Kid 9/2 NB 2 point win
5.30 Economic Crisis 8/1 1 point EW
1.55 Rhagori Aur 7/2 NB 3 point win
2.25 Rocktherunway 8/1 1 point EW
2.55 Bajan Tryst 16/1 1 point EW
3.30 Masstricht 15/2 1 point win
4.25 Bosun Breese 5/2 NAP 4 point win
5.00 Oriental Scot 4/1 2 point win
2:00 Boxing Shadows 7/2 3 point win
2:30 Landaman 4/5 NAP 5 point win
3:00 Ask The Guru 7/2 3 point win
3:35 Feeling Good 6/1 2 point win
4:30 Diman Waters 11/4 NB 3 point win
5:05 Ballesteros 4/9F No Bet
5:40 Barton Bounty 6/1 2 point win
6:10 Select Committee 6/1 2 point win
2:30 Definite Class 7/4 NB 3 point win
3:05 Security Breach 5/2 3 point win
3:40 Beat The Stars 5/2 3 point win
4:15 Benefit Of Porter 2/1 NAP 4 point win
4:45 Gudnis Gracious Me 5/1 2 point win
5:20 Chebona Bula 13/2 1 point EW
5:50 Danequest 9/4 3 point win
6:00 Adiynara 4/5 NB 5 point win
6:30 Ballycarney 7/1 1 point EW
7:00 Plenty Pocket 8/1 1 point EW
7:30 Kings Legacy 11/4 NAP 5 point win
8:05 Float My Boat 6/1 1 point win
8:35 Nobunaga 5/2 3 point win
9:05 Ernie 3/1 2 point win
6:15 Samstown 3/1 3 point win
6:45 Realignment 6/1 2 point win
7:15 Man Of Principles 14/1 1 point EW
7:45 Solway Dornal 9/4 NB 3 point win
8:20 Kai Broon 10/3 3 point win
8:50 Sud Pacifique 13/8 NAP 5 point win
9:20 Front Rank 13/2 1 point EW
Yearly total: +534.88pts
Get Your Tips Out